Mutual Defense

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey inked a joint defense pact on Friday, concluding nearly a year of negotiations aimed at countering aggressive military posturing in the Middle East. Dubbed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, the alliance will act as a NATO-style mutual defense pact that consolidates the power and influence of three regional heavyweights.

According to a trilateral statement, “the agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.” Although Egypt participated in early talks, Cairo was not mentioned as a participant in Friday’s deal. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan all attended the signing in Mecca, Saudi Arabia—Islam’s holiest city.

Military cooperation among the three Sunni Muslim-majority nations is nothing new. For decades, Pakistan has provided Saudi forces with training and technical aid, Islamabad and Ankara have previously exchanged warships and training aircraft, and Riyadh has repeatedly purchased Turkish drones. Last month, Pakistan and Turkey also backed a Saudi-proposed maritime defense coalition that would help protect regional shipping routes and prevent global supply chains from being held hostage during war.

But just how far the joint defense pact will go remains unclear. The three nations do not have a history of eagerly providing military support; last September, Pakistan signed a mutual defense deal with Saudi Arabia. However, Islamabad has not responded militarily to Iran’s recent attacks on the kingdom, and it has downplayed suggestions that its nuclear capabilities might be extended to allies.

All three regional powers are expected to leverage these assets to counter worsening security in the Middle East. Erdogan stressed on Friday that the pact is not aimed at one particular country, and Riyadh expressed similarly placatory sentiments. Friday’s agreement “does not represent an effort to establish a military axis or a sectarian bloc. Nor is it linked to any nuclear ambitions or arms race, rather it is focused on building sustainable capabilities,” Rayed Krimly, Saudi deputy minister for public diplomacy, posted on X.

But experts suspect that the deal is likely a direct response to Iranian and Israeli military maneuvers.

Until now, Turkey and Pakistan have avoided getting directly involved in the Iran war despite both sharing land borders with Iran. Saudi Arabia also initially sought non-involvement; however, long-standing tensions with the Iran-backed Houthis in neighboring Yemen drew the kingdom into active conflict, and in late July, Saudi and U.S. forces launched joint strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq.

In public, Iranian officials appear unimpressed. “The Saudis should know that a paper agreement with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security, just as years of one-sided milking by the Americans did not bring them security,” Ebrahim Rezaei, an Iranian politician, wrote on X. “Change your policies so that you do not have to #BegForSecurity from others.”

Turkey and Israel, meanwhile, have increasingly found themselves in each other’s rhetorical crosshairs. In July, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan described Israel as a “burden that humanity can no longer bear”—remarks that Israeli officials interpreted as a call for genocide. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other prominent political figures in the country have painted Turkey as the new Iran and warned of an “emerging radical Sunni axis.” This new defense pact is likely to further inflame such fears.

Israel has yet to respond to Friday’s signing.